East Asia Trilogy

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Introduction

Note: This is Part III of my Future of East Asia series. You can read Part I (China) and Part II (Korea) here.

Korea is currently in 1797. Let me explain.

I am writing this in September 2024, almost 3 years into the 🇰🇷 Yoon Suk-Yeol administration in South Korea. Approval ratings are hitting rock bottom, the infamous birth rate (0.71) is getting even worse, and this presidency only brings scandal after scandal after less than 36 months in office.

All that being said, I think it's worth taking a look back at the tumultuous past 8 years of South Korean politics — and how it may inform the upcoming administration.

Non-Korean readers may not be familiar with the enormous social revolutions that have been occurring in Korean society since roughly ~2016, but its impact cannot be understated.

Deng led China to prosperity, but his motto was 韬光养晦 (tāo guāng yǎng huì) — "hide your strength and bide your time" — a timid and pacifist policy that Xi would never dream of returning to.

Even the emperors of old never had such global ambitions, content as they were with leading an isolated and (in their minds) eternally superior Chinese civilization. They simply did not have the will to lead the Chinese nation on a grand mission, despite the fact that they did actually have the capaciy to do so (see: the 👑 Ming treasure voyages).

No, to best understand Xi Jinping's China in 2024, we need to look to another country and period altogether. One in which the forces of militant nationalism, rapid economic growth, and a hunger for expansion all coalesced under a powerful leader.

I believe that the best forerunner to Xi is in fact 🇩🇪 Otto Von Bismarck (r. 1862 - 1890), the Iron Chancellor of Germany (formerly Prussia).

Here are my 4 central theses:

1. 🧠 Ideology

2. 📈 Unification

3. 😤 Crisis

4. 📕 Reform

5. 📉 Expansion

6. 🚬 Nationalism

FYI: For the sake of simplicity, I'll be using the term "European Union (EU)" to describe post-WWII Europe in general, starting from around 1950.

I am aware that the EU officially began with the Maastrict Threaty in 1992, but European integration had already been underway since the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in 1952.

Comparison

The Decline, in 2 Charts

To make this easier to digest, let's put these developments on a chart.

The slow decline and collapse of the Qing Dynasty, as with any other empire, took place in 3 primary stages. For the Qing specifically, most scholars agree that these stages mostly took place in the final 150 years. For the EU, I predict that it will take roughly 100 years in total.

1. 👑 Golden Age

2. 📉 Decline

3. 🪦 Collapse

Obviously, these are not exact numerical charts — it's difficult to put a real number on the prosperity of a nation. However, I believe they accurately represent the slow 3-stage transition from golden age to collapse.

If my predictions are correct, this means that we are looking at the final 2-3 decades of a recognizable Europe. The EU itself may still exist by then, but it would be so deeply changed and bruised that it will no longer command the type of authority that it does today.

In other words, this may be the start of a few "decades of humiliation" for the European continent as a whole — although it won't be nearly as bad as China was, since Europe will continue to be vibrant in terms of culture and history.

My Predictions

Of course, one of the benefits of historical literacy is that it allows us to see parallels to our present-day lives.

So with all of that being said, I would like to make 3 predictions about the future of Europe over the next 25 years. Some of these events are already starting to materialize, but I've taken the liberty to weave them together into a grand narrative for us to follow.

Final Words

The great decline of Europe will be one of the greatest events of the 21st century, just like the decline of China was in the 19th century.

As we all know, the collapse of the Qing Dynasty eventually led to the 🏯 Century of Humiliation (1840 - 1950) — a roughly 110-year period in which China was relegated to an impoverished backwater. This period still haunts the Chinese mind, as evidenced by the countless films and series made about the exploitation of China by Western powers.

This period has also fascinated the Western mind, inspiring classics such as 🎬 55 Days at Peking (1963) and 🎬 The Last Emperor (1987). Although clearly viewed from a Western lens, these films capture just how powerless China really was during the turn of the last century.

Europe will remain relatively prosperous and free, but its upcoming "Century of Humiliation" may still be quite a sight to behold for the average young European today. The US-China rivalry will continue to dominate the news, with the formerly powerful Europe being relegated to a secondary player in the global landscape. One caveat is, this "Century" probably will not last an actual century — only a few decades, at most. The modern world simply moves faster than it did in the 1800's.

However, this may also give us a glimpse into the future.

China did not stay weak forever. After decades of political turmoil, the modern-day 🇨🇳 People's Republic of China arose and eventually lifted China back up into superpower status. The PRC represents a resurgent, angry China determined to take revenge on the West for its humiliation, scarred by memories of the past.

Could Europe eventually follow a similar path?

Now that's a scary thought: a resurgent, angry Europe determined to take revenge.

Let's hope we don't live to see that far.